I can provide advice and guidance on Pupil Projection methodology. I have experience of running projections for Primary and Secondary schools in five Local Education Authorities using an excel based model developed over 18 years. The key to good pupil projections is access to your proposed housing developments, good information on recent births at small area level and the use of GIS to place your current pupils from the annual survey (PLASC), current housing and proposed housing in the right areas.
Latest Births Data
Births for Sept 2018 to Aug 2019 are now available and are an ideal basis for school place planning if using an overall Local Authority target.
National projections for the number of pupils in schools are published annually by the devolved administrations and are available below:
England – Pupil Projections – Department for Education – 2018 Based (Published July 2018)
Wales – Pupil Projections – StatsWales – January 2018 Based (Published Sept 18)
Scotland – Pupil Projections – The Scottish Government – 2014 Based (Published Dec 16)