Demographic Projections

Household projections are now the responsibility of ONS. Latest figures have just been released and are 2016 Based.  It is important to note that the methodology is different to the last set produced by CLG and results in much lower household numbers.

Local Authority Detailed data – 2016 Based

New Methodology – 2016 Based

Previous sets – CLG Household Projections

CLG published the 2014 based Sub-national Household Projections on 12th July, 2016.  For England the projections are 4,000 households per year higher than in the 2012 based set (214,000 pa vs 210,000) with Average Household Size falling from 2.35 to 2.21 – the same as in the 2012 based set.  Tables and documentation can be found here 2014 Based CLG Household Projections.

A comparison by Local Authority of 2012 and 2014 based Household Projections are available here Comparison SNHP 2012 vs 2014

Latest ONS Population Projections

ONS published 2018 based National Population Projections (NPPs) and variants on 21st October, 2019.  They include variants on Fertility, Life Expectancy, Migration. Tables and variants can be found here.

Tables for 2016 based NPPs. Tables and reports are available here NPP  and here NPP Variants.

ONS released the 2016 based Sub-national Population Projections (SNPPs) on 25th May, 2016 and are available for SYOA here and Five Year Age bands here.

For all the 2016 based SNPP tables see here

2016 SNPP Variant Projections: 10 Year Migration, High & Low International Migration

ONS published variant 2014 projections (High Fertility, Zero Migration and Prisoners as a Special Population). Comments on these “proof of concept”  variants to ONS email: projections@ons.gsi.gov.uk . Output from there variants are available here. ONS SNPP Variants. See Section 3.

Latest Scottish Population Projections for Scottish Council Areas

NRS published 2016 based Sub-national Population Projections (SNPPs) and variants on 28th March, 2018. Details of the Tables published, as well as variant projections and comparisons, can be found here.

Latest Northern Ireland Population Projections for Local Authority Districts

NISRA published 2016 based Sub-national Population Projections (SNPPs) on 24th April, 2018. Details of the Tables published,  can be found here.

Wales will update their population projections as a 2017 Based set as they now have a three year cycle, starting with a 2014 base.

Projection Model Software

Currently the main product used by Local Authorities is POPGROUP which is used in both England and Wales. Some Local Authorities have their own models e.g. Hampshire County Council and the Greater London Authority.  I have used POPGROUP for 10 years and I was a member of the Steering Committee.

If you want projections running, the software is very good value to Local Authorities and is very quick to get up and running.  There is an annual fee for support and updates.  Once set up, it is straight forward to develop alternative scenanios.

  • If you want advice or guidance on scenario building or any of the inputs then I can help with that.
  • POPGROUP training is also available from Ludi Simpson who tutors the Annual Manchester POPGROUP day courses in June. He can also train on-site or to regional groups on request at a negotiated cost.
  • For technical questions relating to the POPGROUPsoftware email:  popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk

Companies who will run scenarios using POPGROUP for you: