Demographic Projections

Household projections for England are now the responsibility of ONS. Latest figures are 2016 Based.  It is important to note that the methodology is different to the last set produced by CLG and results in much lower household numbers. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland all produce their own sets of Household projections.

Local Authority Detailed data – 2016 Based

New Methodology – 2016 Based

Previous sets – CLG Household Projections

CLG published the 2014 based Sub-national Household Projections on 12th July, 2016.  For England the projections are 4,000 households per year higher than in the 2012 based set (214,000 pa vs 210,000) with Average Household Size falling from 2.35 to 2.21 – the same as in the 2012 based set.  Tables and documentation can be found here 2014 Based CLG Household Projections.

A comparison by Local Authority of 2012 and 2014 based Household Projections are available here Comparison SNHP 2012 vs 2014

Latest ONS Population Projections for England

ONS published 2018 based National Population Projections (NPPs) and variants on 21st October, 2019.  They include variants on Fertility, Life Expectancy, Migration. Tables and variants can be found here.

Previous Projections: 2016 based NPPs.
Tables and reports are available here NPP  and here NPP Variants.

ONS released the 2018 based Sub-national Population Projections (SNPPs) on 24th March, 2020 and are available by SYOA here and at 5YAB here.
Note: ONS have moved to a two year migration trend – a discussion on the reasoning behind this decision is found here.

For the Variants (10 year Migration Trend, High and low International Migration & Alternative Migration), the datasets are found on the landing page here.

2016 Based SNPP Data SYOA here and Five Year Age bands here and for all the other tables see here.

2016 Based SNPP Variant Projections: 10 Year Migration, High & Low International Migration

ONS published variant 2014 projections (High Fertility, Zero Migration and Prisoners as a Special Population). Comments on these “proof of concept”  variants to ONS email: projections@ons.gsi.gov.uk . Output from there variants are available here. ONS SNPP Variants. See Section 3.

Latest Scottish Population Projections for Scottish Council Areas

NRS published 2018 based Sub-national Population Projections (SNPPs) and variants on 28th March, 2018. Details of the Tables published, as well as variant projections and comparisons, can be found here.
Variants (High and low Fertility, Life Expectancy, Migration, Zero Migration) can found on Table 5 of the “Data” files here and more detailed information by Local Authority is available on request…
E-mail: statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk

Previous 2016 Based projections can be found here.

Latest Northern Ireland Population Projections for Local Authority Districts

NISRA published 2016 based Sub-national Population Projections (SNPPs) on April, 2018. Details of the Tables published can be found here.

Latest Welsh Population Projections for Local Authority Districts

Wales intended to update their Subnational Household projections as a 2017 Based set as they now have a three year cycle, starting with a 2014 base. However, this set was not produced and a 2018 Based set has just been published February 2020).

Projection Model Software

Currently the main product used by Local Authorities is POPGROUP which is used in both England and Wales. Some Local Authorities have their own models e.g. Hampshire County Council and the Greater London Authority.  I have used POPGROUP for 10 years and I was a member of the Steering Committee.

If you want projections running, the software is very good value to Local Authorities and is very quick to get up and running.  There is an annual fee for support and updates.  Once set up, it is straight forward to develop alternative scenanios.

  • If you want advice or guidance on scenario building or any of the inputs then I can help with that.
  • POPGROUP training is also available from Ludi Simpson who tutors the Annual Manchester POPGROUP day courses in June. He can also train on-site or to regional groups on request at a negotiated cost.
  • For technical questions relating to the POPGROUPsoftware email:  popgroup@edgeanalytics.co.uk

Companies who will run scenarios using POPGROUP for you: